In 2025, the total volume of the Russian pharmaceutical market is highly likely to surpass another psychological milestone of RUB 3 trillion (in end-consumer prices, including VAT); the value dynamics relative to 2024 are expected to reach 16%. It is noteworthy that the previous threshold of RUB 2 trillion was crossed only four years ago — in 2022 — while overcoming the interval between RUB 1 and 2 trillion required consistent efforts from market participants over nine years, from 2014 to 2022. An important role in accelerating the industry’s growth rates was played by crisis phenomena, which were reflected in increased consumption activity in certain categories of medicinal products and rising prices. It is also important to note the expansion of government guarantees within specific nosologies.

In the medium-term perspective — over the next three years — we expect the upward trend in the development of the Russian pharmaceutical market to continue. According to the realistic forecast scenario prepared by RNC Pharma specialists, by the end of 2027 the market volume should exceed RUB 3.9 trillion. However, the growth rates in monetary terms will gradually slow down: by the end of 2026, value dynamics may reach around 14.5%, and by the end of 2027 the growth rate will amount to about 11.5%. At the same time, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) will remain at around 14%.

With regard to the retail market, we expect growth in the physical volume of consumption and a continued shift toward more expensive medicines, provided that inflation stabilizes and household incomes continue to rise. An important role in this process will be played by the integration of new Russian regions into the Russian economic and administrative system. For instance, the Donetsk People’s Republic is already confidently entering the Top 30 Russian regions in terms of consumption volume, even though integration processes there have not yet been fully completed.

In the market segments associated with public funding, the determining role will be played by the expansion of the scope of government guarantees. The issue of insufficient financing for the “14 High-Cost Nosologies” program (14 VZN) was raised by representatives of the All-Russian Patients’ Union as early as mid-2025, with difficulties related to a noticeable increase in the number of patients within certain nosologies. At present, this problem is acknowledged by representatives of both the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, so one may expect an increase in allocations for the program in 2026.

In addition, significant changes next year are expected in the area of drug provision for patients with orphan diseases who are not included in the 14 VZN program and do not belong to categories of citizens eligible for treatment funded by the state non-budgetary foundation “Krug dobra” (Circle of Kindness). According to amendments to the Federal Law “On the Fundamentals of Health Protection of Citizens in the Russian Federation,” signed by the President of the Russian Federation in July 2025, regions will be able to apply for subsidies from the federal budget if a constituent entity of the Federation cannot independently ensure the procurement of such therapy.

Fig. Forecast for the development of the Russian pharmaceutical market for 2025–2027 under the realistic scenario