In 2025, the Russian pharmacy retail sector experienced two landmark developments. First, the share of parapharmaceutical products fell below the symbolic threshold of 20% of total pharmacy revenue, reaching 19.7% (in ruble terms), whereas as recently as 2022 it exceeded 24%. The downward trend itself is not new and is driven by a rapid consumer shift toward marketplaces for non-pharmaceutical assortment. Previously this was primarily due to higher growth rates of medicinal products within the pharmacy channel; now, however, the key factor is an actual decline in parapharmaceutical sales volumes in pharmacies. In total, based on the results for Q1–Q3 2025, this category decreased by 7 billion rubles (at retail prices including VAT). Nearly all product groups demonstrated negative dynamics, with rare exceptions such as glucose meters and test strips, where pharmacies are still able to grow sales—although even there growth is driven solely by inflationary factors.

The second important development relates to infrastructure. While last year the market entered a stage of slowing expansion of new pharmacy openings, the results for Q1–Q3 2025 allow us to state with confidence that the industry has now entered a phase of quantitative degradation—the number of pharmacies in the country is declining. According to the “Census of Pharmacies in Russia” database by analytics company RNC Pharma, an average of 84.92 thousand pharmacy outlets operated in Russia (including new regions) between January and September 2025, representing 754 fewer outlets compared to the same period a year earlier. Although this does not yet pose a critical structural threat—each pharmacy still serves approximately 1.77 thousand people, or 1.85–1.87 thousand including migrant populations, which is an exceptionally high ratio by global standards—the key point is that the infrastructure of Russian pharmacy retail appears to have reached a saturation “ceiling.” This shift is largely driven by changes in fiscal policy. The trend is expected to persist in the coming year and to manifest primarily through broader consolidation processes, with a central role shifting away from associative models toward M&A activity.

In addition, beginning next year, the sector will face not only a lower threshold for simplified taxation (USN) but also an increase in VAT to 22%. The last VAT change in 2019 led to the anticipated rise in consumer prices. Comparable effects are expected in 2026, with the most significant implications for the dietary supplements (BAS) category. Regulatory tightening has already caused a substantial increase in the cost of handling such products; based on RNC Pharma’s calculations, BAS inflation reached 10.8% in Q1–Q3 2025, which is 3.7 percentage points higher than in the medicinal products segment. If an additional upward price stimulus is introduced next year, the BAS category may undergo significant transformation, where continued consumer migration to marketplaces will likely be the least disruptive among plausible scenarios.

Table. Ranking of Pharmacy Chains and Associations by Share of the Commercial Retail Market for Medicines in Russia, January–September 2025