In the first five months of 2026, the Russian retail market for breast milk substitutes (BMS) showed moderate growth of +3.7%, reaching a volume of RUB 22.5 billion (at retail prices, including VAT). Physical consumption demonstrated more restrained growth: from January to May, Russians purchased 24.5 million packages of infant formula, with physical demand increasing by 1.7% over the year. The current increase in monetary indicators is driven primarily by inflationary processes and changes in packaging formats, as the total weight of products sold in kilograms remained virtually unchanged, showing a minimal decline of 0.03% to about 15 thousand tons. In total for 2025, Russian consumer spending in this category exceeded RUB 54 billion, and the physical sales volume reached 59.7 million packages, which in weight terms corresponded to 36.9 thousand tons of infant food.

The main sales volume of breast milk substitutes is still generated by supermarkets, but the share of this offline retail channel in January–May 2026 decreased to 58.3% in monetary terms, continuing a long-term downward trend — since 2022, this figure has declined by 13 percentage points (from 71.4%). Compared to the same period last year, sales in traditional retail fell by 7% in packages and 2.2% in ruble terms. Against this backdrop, e-commerce has strengthened its position as the second most significant distribution channel for infant formula, with its monetary share growing from 20.2% to 33.6% in recent years. During the analyzed period, it showed high growth dynamics: +19.7% in packages and +15.4% in rubles compared to January–May 2025. In the structure of online sales, in addition to the largest marketplaces Ozon and Wildberries, the Detsky Mir chain plays a key role. In early 2026, according to our estimates, it accounted for more than 9% of the category's total ruble sales, surpassing universal online platforms.

The role of the pharmacy segment in the sales structure of this product group remains insignificant, accounting for only 8% of the total market's monetary volume during the reporting period. Moreover, its share is consistently declining, though not as critically as in the FMCG channel. At the same time, the decline in the share of this distribution channel is not due to falling sales — here, sales increased compared to January–May 2025 by 3.2% in physical terms and 5.2% in ruble terms — but rather to trailing behind the dynamic indicators of the online channel.

A key structural change in the category in recent years has been the consistent strengthening of the positions of manufacturers localized in Russia. Their share in the first five months of 2026 exceeded 48% of total physical demand. At the same time, in monetary terms, domestic infant formula still significantly lags behind foreign products: the latter accounted for 74.6% of the retail market during the reporting period, while the Russian segment accumulated 25.4%.

Nestlé and Danone continue to hold absolute leadership in the retail breast milk substitute market, collectively controlling nearly 54% of the monetary volume and more than 40.6% of physical sales. The brand ranking is naturally led by Nutrilon and Nan. However, in the breakdown of key brands, divergent dynamics are recorded: while Nutrilon showed growth of +16.7%, ruble sales of Nan decreased by 25%. The fastest expansion of market presence among top brands is shown by the Similac line from Abbott (+46% compared to January–May 2025), which is recovering its positions after a noticeable decline in sales volumes that began after 2022. Consistently positive results are also shown by the domestic brand Nutrilak from Infaprim — the product demonstrates consistent annual growth in both monetary and physical indicators, with sales dynamics recorded at +30% simultaneously in rubles and in packages during the analyzed period.

Fig. Structure of the Russian Retail Market for Breast Milk Substitutes by Sales Channel in 2022–2025 and January–May 2026, % RUB